You'll never guess which QB I'm talking about, plus MUST WIN teams for Week 10.

In Praise Of The Underrated Quarterback, And Week 10 Predictions

I’ll be opening a huge mailbag next week. Want to get in on it: jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

I’ll tell you what I think of 4th quarter game winning drives: they are the most important stat in my quarterback database. It is the most excruciatingly important number in determining which QB’s get the job done in the clutch.

What is a 4th quarter game winning drive, you might ask? When a team is trailing or tied at any point in the 4th quarter and they proceed to put the winning points on the board.

Here’s a question for you: which NFL quarterback since the start of the 2001 season has the most 4th quarter game winning drives?

If you thought of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, you’d be correct. They are tied for 1st place, with 22 such drives each.

But you’ll never guess who’s in third place. It isn’t one of the ‘establishment’ QB’s like Donovan McNabb or Brett Favre or Drew Brees.

It’s Kerry Collins with 20. Yes. Kerry Collins. It may sound funny that a quarterback many consider to be a journeyman can be so high on the list but it’s true.

In 2008 alone, Kerry Collins has led the Titans to THREE game winning drives in the 4th quarter: versus the Ravens, Colts and the Packers. The three game winning drives ties Collins with Peyton Manning for the most in 2008.

Remember one detail: in their 2007 season finale against the Colts, needing a win and tied early in the 4th quarter, it was Kerry Collins who drove the Titans to the winning points. Not Vince Young.

Here’s a list of the 17 QB’s with a dozen or more 4th quarter drives that put the winning points on the board when their teams were either trailing or tied, since 2001.

Tom Brady 22

Peyton Manning 22

Kerry Collins 20

Brett Favre 19

Jake Plummer 18

Jake Delhomme 16

Trent Green 16

Aaron Brooks 16

Matt Hasselback 16

Marc Bulger 15

Jeff Garcia 15

Drew Brees 14

Donovan McNabb 14

Ben Roethlisberger 14

Daunte Culpepper 13

Steve McNair 13

Jon Kitna 12

But it’s not enough to just point out the totals. We have to make adjustment to the data because not every quarterback has played the same amount of games. Ben Roethlisberger, for example, has started 63 games (including the Monday nighter against the Skins) during his career while Tom Brady has started 111. So of course Brady would have more 4th quarter winning drives than Ben.

So let’s adjust the totals and rank them according to percentage: which of these 17 quarterbacks has the highest percentage of game winning drives in relation to his starts, since 2001.

In first place is guess who, Kerry Collins. Collins has started only 84 out of a possible 120 games since 2001, yet he trails Brady and Peyton Manning by only 2 game winning drives (22 to 20) despite the fact that Brady has started 27 more games and Manning 36.

The Best

Kerry Collins 20 GWD 84 starts 23.80%

Jake Delhomme 16 GWD 71 starts 22.53%

Ben Roethlisberger 14 GWD 63 starts 22.22%

Jake Plummer 18 GWD 86 starts 20.93%

The Worst

Drew Brees 14 GWD 98 starts 14.29%

Donovan McNabb 14 GWD 98 starts 14.29%

Steve McNair 13 GWD 89 starts 14.61%

Jon Kitna 12 GWD 82 starts 14.63%

Now let’s take this one step further. One complaint I always get in emails is that not all 4th quarter game winning drives are alike.

Example: Kerry Collins drove the Titans to a winning field goal early in the 4th quarter last week against the Colts on Monday night. How far did Collins have to drive the Titans? 17 yards.

Compare that to Trent Edwards taking the Bills 74 yards when he beat the Jags in week 3.

The emailers are correct. There is no comparison. Edwards had the tougher task.

So I decided to calculate a quarterbacks efficiency in the clutch via quantity, i.e by yardage.

What were the results?

Kerry Collins is in first place, again. His 18 game winning drives have encompassed 1301 yards, for an average of just over 65 yards a drive.

Here is the rest of the top five

Kerry Collins 1301 yards/ 18 GWD 65.05 yards per GWD

Trent Green 1031 yards/ 16 GWD 64.44

Jon Kitna 752 yards/ 12 GWD 62.67

Ben Roethlisberger 872 yards/ 14 GWD 62.29

Peyton Manning 1358 yards/ 22 GWD 61.73

The bottom five, the QB’s averaged the least yards per game winning drive

Jake Plummer 947 yards/ 18 GWD 52.61

Jeff Garcia 844 yards/ 15 GWD 56.27

Donovan McNabb 788 yards/ 14 GWD 56.29

Tom Brady 744 yards/ 22 GWD 56.55

Drew Brees 794 yards/ 14 GWD 56.71

So not only does Kerry Collins perform better in the clutch more frequently (as a percentage of his games played) but when he does so, he brings his team further down the field than everyone else.

Here’s one final question for you. Which quarterback has beaten the best teams in getting those 4th quarter winning points?

Drew Brees .527 opponents winning percentage

Tom Brady .517

Kerry Collins .500

Peyton Manning .466

Ben Roethlisberger .460

Kerry Collins ranks right up there with the best of them when it comes to beating the good teams in the clutch.

There you have it. Kerry Collins, Mr. Underrated. Mr. Clutch.

Before I get to my predictions, here are the teams that MUST WIN this weekend. If any of these teams lose, they will be eliminated from any real playoff contention

This is the third week that I have begun my MUST WIN LIST.

In week eight, 4 of the 5 teams that needed to win did just that.

Last week, only 1 of the 4 teams on the list won.

Keep in mind that right now, in the AFC, the two wild card spots are being held by three teams with identical 5-3 records. In the NFC, the wild card spots are held by a pair of 6-3 teams: Washington and Tampa Bay.

Must Win Teams

Jaguars (3-5)

Texans (3-5)

Saints (4-4)

Seahawks (2-6)

49ers (2-6)

On to my predictions for the weekend. I am 78-50 for the season, a shade under 60%.

Bears over Titans: the Titans 11 game regular season winning streak has to end sometime.

Jaguars over Lions: Jags lost to the winless Bengals last week. They will not lose to the winless Lions this week.

Ravens over Texans: and so the season ends for Houston. You have to give them credit for fighting back after the 0-4 start. But last week’s loss to the Vikings set them back big time and and the fall will be complete on Sunday.

Patriots over Bills: three weeks ago on the Ministry of Sports, I was thrilled to report that the Bills, then 5-1 would be playing three consecutive games against divisional opposition. I also mentioned that if the Bills won 2 of those 3 games, they’d have a playoff spot locked up. So far the Bills are 0-2 during the stretch. Let’s make it a perfect sweep.

Saints over Falcons: simple really. The Saints absolutely MUST WIN or they’re out. They’re in last place already, and a loss to Atlanta would place them 2 back of Atlanta and Tampa Bay (without the tiebreaker) and possible 3 back of Carolina.

Seahawks over Dolphins: The Seahawks absolutely MUST WIN as well. They’re three back of the Cardinals but they still get to play them twice. The only way for those games to mean anything is if they beat Miami.

Packers over Vikings

Jets over Rams: A win guarantees the Jets a tie for first place with the winner of the Bills-Patriots game, and also strengthens their wild card potential. Beating weak teams is the most important element when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs.

Panthers over Raiders

Colts over Steelers

Chargers over Chiefs: the Chiefs are not going to tank the season but they will continue to lose.

Giants over Eagles: a win here and the Giants will all but guarantee a playoff spot.

Cardinals over 49ers: Shaun Hill or JT O’Sullivan, it probably won’t make a difference. I just hope Mike Singletary keeps his pants on.

That's it for me.  I hope you enjoyed my Kerry Collins tribute.  Enjoy the games on Sunday and don't forget to participate in the mailbag next week: jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com