Community Blog near Los Angeles, CA

I’ll be opening another mailbag later this week. If you want to add any questions please do so at jimmy.garoufalis@team 990.com   You can also read my work at bhma.net where I’ll be doing a sports column every week. Here goes my predictions.

 

Bills over Chiefs

 

It is hard to believe but the Bills started the season 5-1 and had three straight divisional games in which to put a stranglehold on a playoff position. What happened? The Bills lost to the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots and fell into last place in the AFC East. And on Monday night, they lost to the Cleveland Browns on a 56 yard Phil Dawson field goal with 90 seconds to play.

 

The Bills are now in a bind. They need to win 5 of their last 6 games to make the playoffs. So where do they start? Easy. They need to beat the Chiefs on Sunday and the 49ers next week to get to 7-5.   A loss to either the Chiefs or 49ers equals curtains for Buffalo.

 

Here’s the relevant Dick Jauron statistic: in 2006, Jauron’s first year in Buffalo, the Bills went 3-8 against teams that finished the season with a .500 or better record. In 2007, they dropped to 1-8. In 2008 the Bills have played four games against teams that are currently at .500 or better: they’ve lost all four.

 

The math indicates that under Jauron, the Bills have a 4-20 record against teams that are .500 or better. Who do the Bills play in the last 4 weeks of the season? Miami, the Jets, Denver and New England: teams that have winning records. 

 

Broncos over Raiders

 

Jay Cutler is the real deal at quarterback. Cutler has three fourth quarter game winning drives thus far in 2008: against the Chargers, Browns and last Sunday against the Falcons.   And Cutler did it the hard way.

 

Jay Cutler drove the Broncos 80 yards against San Diego in week 2, another 80 yards against the Browns two weeks ago and 83 more yards a few days ago against the Falcons. Jay Cutler threw a touchdown pass on all three occasions. 

 

The Raiders are on a four game losing streak and counting the days to the hiring of a new head coach. Since their Super Bowl loss in January 2003, the Raiders are a horrendouw 21-69.

 

Colts over Chargers

 

You have to feel sorry for Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. 

 

In week 1 Rivers took his team down the field for the go-ahead touchdown against the Panthers with 2:27 remaining. Rivers reward? He watched as his defense allowed Panthers QB Jake Delhomme to drive 68 yards for the winning touchdown on the final play of the game.

 

The following week, the situation repeated itself against the Broncos. Rivers directed the Chargers to the go ahead touchdown with 4:22 remaining, then stood patienly on the sideline as his defense allowed Jay Cutler to go 80 yards for the winning touchdown.

 

And just a few days ago, the same thing happened yet again. Rivers, despite having a lousy day in terrible weather, was able to muster one important drive that gave the Chargers a one point lead in Pittsburgh with 6:41 to play. It wasn’t pretty but Rivers got it done.

 

And…once more, the Chargers defense immediately ruined yet another valiant Rivers comeback by allowing the Steelers to drive 73 yards for the winning field goal with 11 seconds to play.

 

Depending on the outcome of the Raiders- Broncos game, this might be the Chargers Waterloo. A Denver win would give the Broncos a 7-4 record. If the Chargers lose to the Colts a few hours later, they’d fall to 4-7. 

 

Jets over Titans

 

Just how valuable is Brett Favre to the New York Jets? In 2007 the Jets started the season 2-8 with Chad Pennington (1-6) and Kellen Clemens (1-2) at the controls. The Jets biggest problem was obvious: their quarterbacks were terrible in the 4^th quarter of close games. Clemens and Pennington had 20 drives that began in the fourth quarter or overtime with the Jets tied or trailing by less than eight points. Combined rating for Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens: 35.6, and only three times did they produce points.

 

Brett Favre, on the other hand, has performed at the extreme opposite level in pressure situations. Ten times thus far in 2008 Favre began a drive in the fourth quarter or overtime tied or trailing less than eight points. Favre’s numbers: points on five of those drives and a quarterback rating of 74.0. 

 

Patriots over Dolphins

 

An absolute must win game for both teams, but especially for the Patriots. 

 

If the Pats lose to Miami, they’ll drop to 4-5 in the conference and 2-3 in the division. The Dolphins would jump to 6-3 in the conference and 3-1 in the division, almost guaranteeing any and all tiebreaker advantages if they finish tied with the Pats at season’s end.

 

Also, the Patriots play the contending Steelers in week 13. The Dolphins? They get to face the 2-8 Saint Louis Rams.

 

It’s quite possible that the Patriots, in two weeks time, could find themselves at 6-6, in third place in the AFC East and starting at the final wild card spot as their only playoff path. All this with a 4-6 conference record.

 

Cowboys over 49ers

 

The 49ers have only a slim chance at qualifying for the playoffs. They trail the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals by four games with six to play. Add in the fact that the 49ers were swept in their season series against Arizona and that would make the deficit five games. There are only two ways for the 49ers to make the playoffs. (1)win their last 6 games and hope the Cardinals lose five of six OR (2)win five of six and hope the Cardinals lose ALL their remaining games. Aside from playing the 2-8 Rams in week 16, every other game on the 49ers slate is against teams with winning records: Cowboys, Bills, Jets, Dolphins and Redskins.

 

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are 6-4, tied for 2^nd in the NFC East with the Redskins, and both the Skins and Cowboys are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the final wild card spot.

 

Like the Bills, the Cowboys have been given a break in the schedule. Their next two games, against the 49ers and the Seahawks, should be automatic wins, catapulting them to 8-4, which is absolutely a must situation for the Cowboys: their last 4 opponents all have winning records: the Steelers, Giants, Ravens and Eagles. Beating both the 49ers and Seahawks would allow the Cowboys to make the playoffs by merely splitting their last four games.

 

Giants over 49ers

 

This game, despite featuring division leaders, is, surprisingly enough, not that interesting. Why? Because both teams are almost certainly, barring a disastrous finish, going to make the playoffs. The Cardinals will probably not even have to win another game and they’d still make the playoffs. The Giants have a three game lead and are a perfect 4-0 in the NFC East. 

 

Bears over Rams

 

The Bears, tied for first in the NFC North, need to pocket as many ‘easy’ wins as possible. The Rams, on a four game losing streak, qualify on that front. The only fear for Bears fans is that Chicago looks past the Rams to next week’s opponent, the Vikings.

 

Packers over Saints

 

The Packers may be tied for first place in the NFC North with the Bears and Vikings, but this game if much more important to the Saints. The Packers can lose on Monday night and still find themselves in a tie for first place in their division, depending on how the Bears and Vikings perform.

 

The Saints, not so much. Not only are they a game out of a wild card spot (behind Atlanta, Dallas and Washington) but their conference record is a weak 2-4. A loss to the Pack and the Saints would have to win their last five games to make the postseason and their schedule doesn’t help them: except for the winless Lions in week 16, every game is against a playoff contender: Bucs, Falcons, Bears and Carolina.

 

Jaguars over Vikings

 

The Jaguars are almost certain to miss the playoffs. Even if they were to run the table and win every remaining game, their conference record would only be 6-6.

 

The Vikings are 5-3 since Gus Frerotte took over in week 3, and they have done it the hard way: come from behind victories against the Saints, Lions and the Packers.

 

Much like the Packers, this game isn’t as pressure packed for the Vikings, despite their precarious 5-5 record. Since they play in a weak division and still have a game to play against the Bears (and the 0-10 Lions) they can make up the difference (if there is one) in the coming weeks.

 

Eagles over Ravens

 

Incredibly important matchup for both teams.

 

Since the Steelers are heavy favorites to beat the Bengals Thursday night and jump to 8-3, the Ravens will have to do likewise or suffer the following fate: drop to 6-5, two games back of Pittsburgh without any tiebreakers (Steelers beat Ravens and Steelers have 7-1 conference record vs Ravens 6-4)

 

A loss by the Ravens would place them in a position where they would only qualify for the playoffs via the wild card route.

 

The Eagles, on the other hand, after the Ravens game, end the season with a killer schedule that includes the NFC West leading Cardinals and all three of their division rivals, two of them on the road.    The Eagles will be banging their heads against the wall in early January if they miss the playoffs by a narrow margin: their 13-13 tie against the Bengals will most likely be the fatal wound. A team with playoff aspirations cannot fail to record a victory against a team like the Bengals with a 1-8 (now 1-8-1) record.

 

Redskins over Seattle

 

After five straight playoff appearances (including a Super Bowl berth) the Seahawks have crash landed. This is hardly the way Mike Holmgren wanted to end (for now at least) his illustrious coaching career: as the coach of a 2-8 team.

 

The Redskins, however, are looking at qualifying for the post season for the third time in four years, this time under rookie coach Jim Zorn. They’re tied with Atlanta and Dallas for the final wild card slot, and this ‘easy’ game is easily a must win. The Eagles theory holds true to the Redskins: the Eagles tie against the Bengals was a death knell. If the Skins cannot beat a weak team with nothing to play for like Seattle, then they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.

 

Panthers over Falcons

 

If the Falcons are going to win the NFC South, the march begins against the division leading Panthers. The Falcons have already lost to the Panthers (24-9 in week 4) so another loss here would drop them to 6-5, a full four games back when taking the series sweep into consideration.

 

The Panthers, on the other hand, are on a four game winning streak and about to embark on the toughest closing schedule in the entire NFL. Opponents record over the final 6 weeks: 38-22-0. The Panthers need to bank at least two more wins to feel good about their playoff chances. A win over the Falcons would be a great way to start since it would all but eliminate at least one team from catching them.

 

Bucs over Lions

 

The Lions may be winless but they’ve played tough. They suffered fourth quarter collapses at the hands of the Vikings and Bears and came very close to tying the Panthers last week to force overtime. However, they still lost and coach Rod Marinelli will pay the price at season’s end. The Lions started the 2007 season 6-2: since then, they are 1-17.

 

The Tampa Bay Bucs, if the season ended today, would be the top wild card team in the NFC. It is imperative that they win in the Motor City because their next three games are all against division opponents: home to the Saints and on the road against Carolina and Atlanta. Beating Detroit will allow the Bucs the freedom to lose two of three against their division rivals and still be in a good position to make the playoffs.

 

And a bonus pick….

 

Alouettes 31 Stampeders 22….MVP Anthony Calvillo.

 

There you have it. My picks for Week 12. Enjoy the games everybody.