Early Season MVP, the Jaguars comeback, is 0-3 over, is Lane gone and is Eli elite? And more....

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks.  Thank you for the emails at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com.  Keep them coming, I'll be opening another mailbag this Saturday.

But for now here are my thoughts on Week 3 in the NFL.

Early Season MVP Candidate

The one quality I always look at when judging a quarterback is this : how does he perform when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter? Does he cave in to the pressure and overthrow his receivers? Does he hold on to the ball and get sacked at the most inopportune moments? Or does he bring his team down the field for the deciding points?

If Trent Edwards is the answer, then the question is "who is Jimmy G’s early season pick for the MVP award ?"

Look at Trent’s performance in the fourth quarter against both the Jaguars and the Raiders for all the evidence you’ll need. In both contests the Bills trailed in the 4th late, down 6 against the Jags and down 9 against Oakland.

Edwards’s stats in the 4th quarters: 8 of 11 for 91 yards and a touchdown vs Jags, and 13 of 18 yesterday for 177 yards and a touchdown vs Oakland. Overall: 21 of 29 for 268 yards and two touchdowns, no mistakes whatsoever at a time when even one error would have cost his team either  game.

In Edwards’s case, he has been performing well even in the first three quarters against both the Jags and Raiders, so he can’t be considered a quarterback who struggles early only to wake up late.

Quarters 1-3 vs Jags and Raiders: 23 of 35 for 250 yards and an INT

Quarter 4 vs Jags and Raiders: 21 of 29 for 268 yards and 2 TD’s

It seems that the Bills have found themselves a franchise quarterback....finally.

And The Big Winner In The Jags Comeback Win Over The Colts

David Garrard did much to squash the criticism he has received for his performance in weeks 1 and 2. In losing close games to the Titans and Bills, Garrard performed adequately in the fourth quarter, but not adequately enough to come out with a win. Garrard’s fourth quarter totals against the Bills and Titans: 6 of 11 for 71 yards and an interception.

But against the Colts, Garrard was masterful. First off, Garrard engineered a massive 19 play drive that ate up TWELVE AND A HALF minutes of the fourth quarter. This drive ended with a field goal that gave the Jags a 20-14 lead with 2:33 to play.

After watching the Colts score the go ahead touchdown with 1:07 remaining Garrard went to work on a drive that would either sink or save the Jaguars season.

Watching Garrard start the drive I thought to myself: this game is equivalent in magnitude to the Steelers playoff game when Garrard took the Jags down the field for the winning field goal late in the fourth quarter. The Steeler game was an elimination game, and with his Jags at 0-2, so was this one.

And he did it again. Garrard was masterful, completing five of six passes for 36 yards in the final 1:07, using his three timeouts wisely, after starting from his own 20.

Garrard had two completely different drives in the fourth and he excelled both times.

In the 19 play drive, he threw only three passes and ran twice while calling for Maurice Jones Drew and Fred Taylor the remainder of the plays.

In the final drive when using the running attack was out of the question because of the clock, Garrard dropped back in the pocket every snap and found his receivers four different receivers in the clutch.

Simply put, Garrard saved the Jaguars season. As you’ll see in just a few paragraph’s time, 0-3 teams go nowhere.

And The Other Big Winner In The Jags-Colts Game

Oh, the Tennessee Titans must be feeling great right now. If the Colts had held on to their 21-20 lead against the Jaguars, the AFC South standings would have looked like this

Titans 3-0

Colts 2-1

Texans 0-2

Jaguars 0-3

One game up on the Colts is better than trailing or being tied that’s for sure.

However, with the Jags comeback win, the standings look like this instead

Titans 3-0

Jaguars 1-2

Colts 1-2

Texans 0-2

The Titans now have a two game lead on their 2 bitter rivals, along with the tiebreaker over Jacksonville following an opening day victory.

Oh, the Titans must be very happy right about now.

Which QB Has Most 4th Quarter Comebacks Since 2007?

Did you watch the Bengals-Giants game? When Eli Manning took the field with 4:30 left on his own 32 yard line trailing 20-16 did you have any doubt that he would get the job done. I didn’t. I knew Eli would take his team down the field for a touchdown.

Am I being ridiculous? I mean, seriously, this isn’t Peyton we’re referring to. It’s the little brother, you know, the one who could never match up with you know who.

The answer: I am being serious when I tell you I knew Eli would succeed. He seems to always get the job done in the clutch. Against the Bengals he was no different. In taking the lead 23-20, Eli completed 3 of 5 for 33 yards and a touchdown pass to Kevin Boss with just under 2 minutes to play.

In overtime, Eli made the big plays as I expected him to. On the Giants second drive he completed 2 long passes, for 28 yards to Plexico Burress and 31 to Armani Toomer, setting up John Carney’s 22 yard winning field goal.

The numbers do not lie. Look at the title of this section "Which QB has the most 4th quarter regular season comebacks since the start of the 2007 season?"

Answer: Eli, of course.

The list

Eli Manning 5

Tom Brady 4

Trent Edwards 3

Tony Romo 3

Jay Cutler 3

Brian Griese 3

And I am not even taking into consideration the two 4th quarter comebacks Eli engineered in the playoffs against Dallas and the Patriots, which would put him even further ahead of his contemporaries..

Isn’t it about time people stop criticizing little brother and accept him as being an elite quarterback?

J.T. O’Sullivan: He Keeps Getting Better

Maybe Mike Martz knows quarterbacks better than even the most hardened anti-Mike fan ever imagined. Or maybe nobody in football knows what to look for in a quarterback. Or maybe it is a combination of the two.

Either way, before this season, J.T. O’Sullivan had been on six different teams in his six years as a pro. Never did he start a game, and the best he could ever claim to be was a third stringer.

Yet here is J.T as a starter in San Francisco (where Mike Martz lobbied to sign him) and check out his numbers after three starts: 104.6 rating , 50 of 75 throwing (excellent 66.7%) for 705 yards (9.38 yards per attempt, well above the league average of 6.85) three touchdowns and one interception. Best of all, the 49ers are 2-1 after finishing 2007 with a 5-11 record.

You may remember that the 49ers were 2-1 to start the 2007 season as well, however, one look at Alex Smith’s numbers will explain everything.

Smith’s totals after 3 games in 2007: 43 of 83 for a paltry 461 yards (5.55 yards per attempt) and one touchdown pass to go along with one interception. About the only thing Alex Smith got right was his lack of turnovers but when a quarterback is throwing for only 5.5 yards per attempt, he is not moving the team down the field and unfortunately (for him) he won’t be in the starting lineup for long (injury or no injury)

If I am a 49er fan, I am resting comfortably right about now. The offense is in good hands with O’Sullivan, and Mike Martz is doing what he does best: taking an untested unknown and turning him into a potential Pro Bowler (think of Trent Green, Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger)

Why Lane Kiffin Will Be Fired?

By the time you read this Lane Kiffin might already be fired. I will explain why Al Davis will eventually rid himself of the ‘boy blunder’, sooner rather than later. Lane isn’t ready for prime time: it isn’t a personal criticism, merely a statement of fact. Perhaps he’ll do better with his next head coaching job. He’s only 33, he’s got his entire future ahead of him.

Always, there’s a list. Which teams have blown the most 4th quarter leads since the start of the 2007 season?

Oakland, of course (you can see where I was going with this) leads with a whopping total of 6. No joke, Lane Kiffin is only 5-14 as an NFL coach and he has blown more 4th quarter leads than he has WINS. I wish there was a less comical for me to introduce the stat but there isn’t. It’s enough to make a Raiders fan cry. (I’m with you, my friends, my Chiefs have lost 11 straight)

Back to the list: The Bears are second, with 5 blown leads, while the Seahawks and Ravens have 4 each.

It is a coaches job to make the right decisions in football games. Yes it is a game of players as we always say, but coaches make a difference. That is why we interview them after the game and during the week and why we analyze their play calling and personel choices. Because they matter.

Taken by themselves, each of the blown 4th quarter leads can be forgiven.

Against the Lions (week 1, 2007) it was Kiffin’s first game as coach.

Against the Broncos the following week (week 2, 2007( Mike Shanahan called a timeout in OT just as Sebastien Janekowski kicked what we thought was a game winning field goal. Okay, bad luck there.

Against the Chiefs (week 6, 2007) okay, they are division rivals, I can understand.

Against the Bears (week 9, 2007) perhaps they were pumped because Rex Grossman was behind center.

Against the Colts (week 13, 2007) face it, Peyton Manning has brought his team back many times, this was no exception.

And finally yesterday, Kiffin saw his Raiders blow a 9 point lead in the last 5 minutes.

This is getting ridiculous. True, it is players who make plays but at which point do we start assessing blame on the sidelines.

One blown lead can be explained away, perhaps even two, hell, make it three and I’ll agree.

However, once we get to four, then five, and now six, it starts becoming quite apparent that Lane Kiffin doesn’t have ‘it’, whatever ‘it’ is. And for that, I can assure you that Lane Kiffin will be fired at the end of the season, if not earlier. (He may have already been fired when you read this)

What Happens When A Team Starts 0-3 ?

This is the part of the job that I hate: destroying people’s hopes.

Okay, back to the question.

The answer of course is quite obvious. There have been 41 teams since 2000 that began a season with three straight defeats.

NONE made the playoffs

TWO finished with a 9-7 record (Pittsburgh ‘00 and Buffalo ‘04)

THREE finished with an 8-8 record (Titans ‘06, Bengals ‘03, Skins ‘01)

Surprisingly, only seven teams since 2000 followed up a playoff season with an 0-3 start: NONE of them even reached .500

You read correctly: only five teams out of a whopping 41 actually got to .500. That’s it.

The moral of the story is not to start the season poorly because with only 16 games there’s just not enough time to make up for the early deficiency.

So if you are a fan of the Chiefs, Lions, Bengals, Browns or the Rams, you can pack it in right about ........now.

Again, this is the part of the job I hate.

Newflash: The Jaguars came back from a late 21-20 deficit to beat the Colts. It was a dramatic victory for the Jaguars, who were that close to starting the season 0-3.

So the questions are: how many teams required fourth quarter comebacks to avoid starting a season 0-3? And how well did they do the rest of the way?

The answer may surprise you. Here’s the list since 1998 and their records in brackets

‘98 Rams (4-12)

‘98 Cardinals (9-7)

‘98 Bucs (8-8)

‘01 Vikings (6-10)

‘01 Cardinals (7-9)

‘02 Steelers (10-5-1)

‘03 Browns (5-11)

‘04 Texans (7-9)

‘06 Panthers (8-8)

‘07 Giants (10-6)

‘07 Chiefs (4-12)

Only THREE OUT OF ELEVEN used the dramatic early season win to launch themselves into the playoffs.

Only THREE OUT OF ELEVEN finished above .500

I like the Jaguars and I wish them well the rest of the way, however based on historical precedents I’ll wait before doing handsprings predicting success for them.

What Happens When A Team Starts 3-0?

This is happier ground although it certainly offers no guarantees, if recent history is any indication..

In 2007, all FIVE teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs (Dallas, Packers, Colts, Patriots and Steelers

In 2006, 5 of the 6 teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs (Ravens, Bears, Colts, Saints and Seattle: the Bengals were the only exception

In 2005, all FOUR 3-0 teams made the playoffs (Bengals, Bucs, Skins and Colts)

In 2004, 5 of the 6 teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs (Falcons, Patriots, Jets, Eagles and Seattle: the Jaguars were the exception)

In 2003, same thing: 5 out of 6 ( Panthers, Broncos, Colts, Chiefs and Seattle: the Vikings were the exception)

The math: 27 teams have started 3-0 since 2003: 24 ended up in the postseason

So if you are a fan of the Bills, Titans, Broncos, Cowboys and Giants, you’re on cloud nine right about ...now.

Unless...and this is the exception to the rule...it becomes 2002 all over again.

What happened in 2002? SEVEN teams began the season 3-0 and only....get this...this is no joke...ONLY ONE made the playoffs.

 

Carolina, Denver, Miami, New England, New Orleans and San Diego all MISSED the playoffs despite starting 3-0. That can best be described as an aberration, a statistical fluke.

But still, it is worth mentioning.

That's it for me.  I'll be back Saturday with my predictions and another edition of my mailbag.