More emails, a new MVP candidate, Harbaugh and Reid coaching decisions and more....

The NFL Week 5 Review: Emptying The Mailbag. Again.

Welcome back to my blog, Touchdowns and kicks with Jimmy G. I hope you enjoyed Sunday’s action. I know I did. So let’s get down to business in a hurry shall we? There are emails to answer and numbers to throw at you. I’d like to thank the patient Matthew Da Silva, a frequent contributor for his patience: don’t worry Matthew, your question regarding Aaron Rodgers, and by extension, Brett Favre will be answered in my Predictions blog this Saturday.

Keep the emails coming: jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

Before I answer emails I’d like to give you my take on the Ravens-Steelers game, specifically the Ravens play selection late in the fourth quarter.

Here it is: tie game, Ravens get the ball back on their own 13 with 1:40 to play, with two timeouts. Your basic two minute drill, something that legends like Joe Montana, John Elway and the king Dan Marino excelled at.

The strategy for Baltimore was not complicated. Nice safe dumpoff passes that hopefully get you some yards after the catch and a few missed tackles. I discussed it at length on ‘The Ministry Of Sports’ with Simon Tsalikis following the game. Yes, the Ravens have a rookie QB in Joe Flacco and the pressure on him would have been tremendous.  But that comes with the territory.

Simon’s theory was that with a rookie quarterback, you run the ball to kill the clock and let your defense get you better field position in overtime. I disagreed but to be fair Simon was quick to point out that if a veteran QB was in there for the Ravens, his strategy would have been quite different.

Back to my strategy: nice safe dumpoff passes that hopefully gain a few yards after the catch. Nothing complicated, nothing dangerous. The Steelers were in a prevent zone, so Flacco was going to have time to thrown the ball.

Instead the Ravens ran three times to kill the clock and force overtime, which was their intent all along.

This I did not understand. Why? Follow the logic that I will map out.

(a)there was plenty of time to go down the field, of that there is no question

(b)a turnover deep in Ravens territory with less than two minutes to play would have been fatal

(C)but if the Ravens got the ball to start overtime and turned the ball over that would have been fatal as well

(d)so the Ravens decided to take a chance that they would win the coin toss in overtime, perhaps gaining a few yards in the field position battle

(e)meaning that even if the Ravens won the coin toss to start overtime they’d be in almost the exact same position they were in with 1:40 to play

(F)the difference being that if the Ravens lost the coin toss, they risked never seeing the ball again

Does this make any sense? Actually it does, because it proves that Joe Flacco does not have the total confidence of his coach John Harbaugh. If he did, you better believe that Flacco would have been given every opportunity to take his team down the field in the last 2 minutes of a game.

Okay, some numbers first. If you are a fan of either the Bengals and the Rams, I have some negative news for you: you won’t be making the playoffs this year. Okay, so that hardly qualifies as an enlightened or shocking observation given the way these squads are playing.

I write this with confidence because I have researched how 0-4 teams fare over the course of their remaining games and it isn’t pretty.

Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, 46 teams have started the season 0-4, and NONE made the playoffs. NONE. In fact, only THREE (out of 46) teams even managed to scrape together a .500 record or better (Bills ‘04, Skins ‘01 and the Titans ‘06) So say bye bye Bengal and Ram fans. It was nice of you to show up.

Let’s flip the equation. What are the expectations of a 4-0 team? I am sure that Bills and Titans fans (and perhaps Giants fans if they can win this Sunday) would like to know the answer.

Again, using 1995 as a starting point, we find that 34 of the 40 teams that started a season 4-0 made the playoffs. The exceptions (Vikings ‘03, Chargers ‘04, Jets ‘00, Patriots ‘99, Chiefs ‘96 and the Rams ‘95)

As a matter of fact, EVERY 4-0 team has managed to scrape together at least a .500 record except for those 1995 Rams.

So Tennessee and Buffalo fans should be feeling very good right about now.

Arizona and Green Bay fans: beware the following statistic

In this decade, TWELVE teams have started a season with two straight wins, and then lost two straight to fall to 2-2.

NONE of those TWELVE teams made the playoffs. As a matter of fact the ‘05 Chiefs are the only team to finish above .500. Interesting.

If you use 1995 as the starting point, then THREE out of NINETEEN teams that started 2-0 only to fall to 2-2 made the playoffs.

The Cardinals and Packers are the only 2008 teams that fit this description, having won two straight before dropping two.

Now what if we flip the equation and focus on 0-2 teams that jumped up to 2-2. What is the history there? (The Chargers and the Jaguars fit the 2008 description for this formula)

Surprisingly enough, not much better.

Since 1999, there have been 14 teams that started 0-2 and then won two straight to get to 2-2.

Only THREE made the playoffs. The ‘03 Eagles, the ‘05 Chiefs and of course, your 2007 Super Bowl Champions, the New York Giants.

This stat underscores how difficult it truly is to recover from a bad start in the NFL.

Okay the numbers are out of the way, mailbag time.

Adric B writes "Hey Jimmy love your blog, keep up the good work (thanks Adric) can you explain why the Eagles went for it on fourth and goal instead of kicking a field goal? Andy Reid is the goat of Philadelphia today."

Let’s recap the end of Sunday nights Eagles Bears contest as a way to introduce the question.

Eagles trailed 24-20 just over 4 minutes to play. Fourth and goal from the one yard line.

Andy Reid had the following options.

Option #1: go for it. If the Eagles get a touchdown they take a 27-24 lead and force Kyle Orton to drive down the field to force overtime with a field, or win the game outright with a touchdown.

Now what are the chances of Kyle Orton doing exactly that? Very slim, very slim indeed.

Orton has started 22 games (including the Eagles game) and has exactly one game winning fourth quarter drive to his credit. When was this, you might ask? Against the Saints in 2005: 10 plays 65 yards, only one pass thrown.

If you are Andy Reid, you know what will happen if your team converts on fourth down. A touchdown wins you the game because Kyle Orton will not lead his team down the field in crunch time.

Option #2: Kick a field goal, trail by one and then hope your defense gets you the ball back with time on the clock for Donovan McNabb to get you to the Bears 30 for a David Akers field goal attempt.

The risk in Option #1 is very simple. If you don’t get in the end zone, you get no points and the Bears can run out the clock with two first downs (or maybe one if it occurs on third down)

But the risk would be the exact same in Option #2: if you kick a field goal you then still give the ball back to the Bears on the kickoff (assuming no onside kick) Two first downs (potentially one) would still end the game. The only difference would be that McNabb would only need a field goal instead of a touchdown if he ever got the ball back.

Adric, I know what you are getting at and I cannot completely disagree. A field goal is the safe play but Andy Reid hasn’t won over 60% (actually 60.8% 90-58-0) of his games by playing safe. I knew immediately that the Eagles would go for it on fourth down.

It was the right call Adric. Unfortunately it didn’t work out.

From Tom P in Verdun "Last week you wrote that Trent Edwards is your early season favourite for MVP simply because he won a couple of games in the fourth quarter. Are you willing to put David Garrard in the same category after he beat the Colts and Texans with late drives?"

Tom, that is an excellent question. The answer: you’re damn right I am.

Let’s be clear on one thing: the Jaguars could just as easily be 0-4 instead of 2-2.

Versus the Colts in Week 3, Garrard took over on his 20 trailing by one with 1,03 left. Result: a 47 yard drive that ended with a Josh Scobee field goal and a Jags win. Garrard’s numbers: 5 of 6 for 36 yards.

Against the Texans on Sunday, Garrard took over on his own 38 with 5:18 left needing a touchdown. Garrard’s numbers: 4 of 8 for 29 yards passing and five scrambles for 33 yards and yes, a touchdown that gave the Jags a temporary lead.

In overtime, Garrard completed both his passes for 36 yards to get his team in field goal range, and presto, another come from behind victory for the Jags.

Is Garrard a serious MVP candidate? Yes. Garrard proved his value by making sure his team didn’t fall to 0-4. I’ve already explained earlier in this blog what happens to teams that start the season 0-4. Thanks to David Garrard, the Jags don’t have to worry about that.

I judge quarterbacks mainly on how they perform in crunch time. If you cannot get the job done in the fourth quarter, you won’t be a starter for very long.  Garrard looks like the real deal down in Florida.

Patrick from Park Ex (great place!) writes "Is Matt Ryan the real deal?"

Nice simple question with a very simple answer.

When Matt Ryan plays against weak competition such as the 0-3 Lions and the 1-3 Chiefs, he does extremely well. 9 of 13 for 161 yards against Detroit, 12 of 18 for 191 yards versus my Chiefs.

When Matt Ryan plays an established NFL defense, such as the Bucs and Panthers, he plays like a mid level draft choice: a combined 34 of 74 for 316 yards for a ridiculously paltry 4,27 yards per attempt.

The Falcons are basically looking at a yo-yo when Ryan plays. Week 1 Ryan is great against Detroit and wins (but doesn’t everyone). Week 2 against the Panthers Ryan struggles mightily and loses. Week 3 against the Chiefs Ryan is great again and wins (as does everyone against KC, except Denver) In Week 4 against the Bucs: awful.

The pattern for Falcons fans is disturbing. We’ll find out more this Sunday when Ryan goes up against Green Bay on the road.

Maksud Intwala writes "Are you going (he means me) to admit that you were wrong when you criticized Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell after their opening night loss to the Giants?"

Maksud is referring to my article on the team990.com titled "Jim Zorn: A Horrible Coaching Debut" Here’s the link for those who missed it the first time: http://www.team990.com/blog/view/article/jim_zorn_a_horrible_coaching_debut/

In it I could not have been any more critical of Jason Campbell’s play or Jim Zorn’s decision making and clock management ability. I actually could have been, but I held back for reasons of space.

I predicted the Skins would finish 7-9 BEFORE the season and I kept that prediction even after their debacle against the defending Super Bowl champs, mainly so I wouldn’t be called a fair weather fanny.

Who would have guessed that keeping my 7-9 record for the Skins would have turned out to be wrong on the POSTIVE side, i.e that the Skins would win more than seven games.

I am not afraid to admit it when I am wrong (and I am wrong on approximately 37.5% of my predictions so I have plenty of practice) so Maksud, I’ll admit it: I was wrong. Jason Campbell hasn’t turned the ball over yet and he is showing the poise and production that made him a first round pick.

There I’ll reiterate: I was wrong about both Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell and by extension, the entire Washington Redskins organization.

Joshua from Verdun (originally from Saint Louis, you’ll see why this is relevant in a second) writes "Jimmy, I know you are a huge Mike Martz fan so you must be thrilled right now that Scott Linehan was fired. You keep bringing up how the Rams have fallen since firing Martz."

Joshua, thank you for the question. Yes I am a huge Mike Martz fan but No, I am not happy that Scott Linehan was fired. Yes he deserved to get canned (that’s what an 11-25 record will get you) but he is also a human being who was trying his absolute best in trying circumstances.

It is never a good day when a good man gets the heave ho but I am sure that Linehan, just like Cam Cameron (1-15 with Miami last year, fired yet is now employed with the Ravens as offensive coordinator) will find work relatively quickly.

Linehan will either get a coordinator’s job in the NFL or a head coaching position with a top flight NCAA Division 1 club.

Oh yeah about Mike Martz: the Rams were 53-32 with Mad Mike at the helm. Since he got canned, the Rams are 15-32. Therefore, if the Rams were to win their next 38 games, they would only equal Martz’ won-loss record.

That's it for me.  I'll be back on Saturday with my predictions for Week 5.  Keep the emails coming at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com